The Commission's forecasting remit is specified by the Scottish Fiscal Commission Act 2016. The fiscal forecasts are for Scottish Government receipts from fully and partially devolved taxes and devolved social security expenditure. The Commission is also required to forecast onshore Scottish GDP.
We currently produce five year forecasts of tax receipts for Scottish Non-Savings Non-Dividend Income Tax, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, Scottish Landfill Tax, Non-Domestic Rates and Air Passenger Duty. We will also forecast Aggregates Levy.
We forecast expenditure for devolved social security benefits. This covers a wide range of benefits including ill health and disability benefits, carer’s benefits, Discretionary Housing Payments, Best Start Grant and Best Start Foods, Funeral Support Payments, Cold Weather Payments, Winter Fuel Payments and Employability Services.
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In addition the Commission forecasts the reasonableness of Scottish Minister’s borrowing.