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Forecasting the cost of Scotland's social security benefits

As responsibility for more social security benefits is handed over to the Scottish Parliament, forecasting their impact on Scotland's budget becomes increasingly important. If you have experience of Carer's Allowance, Sure Start Maternity Grant, the Healthy Start scheme, Discretionary Housing Payme...

Forthcoming Publications - update August 2018

5 September 2018 -  Forecast Evaluation Report. Our annual look back at our forecast performance. 5 September 2018 - Statement of Data Needs. Following the Economy, Jobs and Fair Work Committee Inquiry into Economic Data, the Commission has committed to publishing an annual statement of our data ne...

Forthcoming Publications - Update July 2018

3 July 2018 Forthcoming Publications - update July 2018 5 September 2018 - Forecast Evaluation Report Our annual look back on forecast performance, to learn any lessons for future forecasts. 5 September 2018 - Statement of Data Needs Following the Economy, Jobs and Fair Work Committee Inquiry int...

Forthcoming Publications - Update June 2018

4 June 2018   Forthcoming Publications - update June 2018   5 September, 2018 - Forecast Evaluation Report Our annual look back on forecast performance, to learn any lessons for future forecasts. 5 September, 2018 - Statement of Data Needs Following the Economy, Jobs and Fair Work Committee Inq...

Dame Susan Rice talks about the Scottish Fiscal Commission's Five Year Forecasts published 31 May 2018

Dame Susan Rice, SFC chair from Fiscal Commission on Vimeo....

Slow wage growth dampens Scottish income tax forecasts

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has published its latest report ‘Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts - May 2018’, which shows that the outlook for the Scottish economy remains subdued over the next five years. GDP growth is expected to remain below 1.0 per cent a year over the forecast period, r...

Forthcoming Publications - Update May 2018

Week beginning 14 May, Costing to accompany the Scottish Government’s secondary legislation for proposed changes to Non-Residential Land and Buildings Transaction Tax Group Relief An estimate of tax revenue raised or forgone as a result of the proposed change to Non-Residential LBTT Group Relief (a...

Next Commission forecast to be published on 31 May 2018

21 March 2018  The Scottish Fiscal Commission will publish produce their next edition of Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts on Thursday 31 May 2018. This will include updated economic and fiscal forecasts up to 2023-24.  These forecasts are being produced to inform the Scottish Government’s ...

Scottish Fiscal Commission publishes papers on economic forecasting and income tax behaviour

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published two papers which give more detail on its approach to forecasting  income tax receipts and the economy. The first of these, ‘How we forecast behavioural responses to income tax policy‘ sets out in greater detail the approach it took in its official f...

Forthcoming Publications - March

7 March 2018, 9.30am - How we forecast behavioural responses to income tax policy This paper will explain the details of our approach to modelling taxpayer behaviour change in response to changes in income tax policy. 7 March 2018, 9.30am - Forecasting the long-run potential of the Scottish econom...

Dame Susan continues as Commission chair

Dame Susan Rice has been re-appointed chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission. The Commission produces forecasts of devolved tax revenue and demand-led social security expenditure and of the Scottish economy. It is structurally and operationally independent of the Scottish Government. Susan Rice h...

Forthcoming SFC Workshops

The Scottish Fiscal Commission is holding two workshops in March, the first on our economic and income tax forecasts, and the second on our Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and Non-Domestic Rates forecasts. All those with an interest in how we produce our forecasts are welcome to attend.   Unpac...

Commission publishes official Scottish budget income tax forecasts

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published official forecasts for income tax revenue, updated to reflect the Scottish Government’s final Budget announced last Wednesday in the Scottish Parliament by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Constitution, Derek Mackay. The final income tax policy...

Forthcoming Publications - February

7 March 2018, 9.30am - How we forecast behavioural responses to income tax policy This short publication will provide the official forecast of the Scottish Government's income tax revenue from 2018-19 through to 2022-23 following the announcements during the Stage 1 debate on the Budget Bill on 31 ...

Subdued outlook for Scottish economy

The taxes now devolved to Scotland will raise almost £16 billion in the next financial year (2018-19), says the Scottish Fiscal Commission in its first set of independent and official forecasts. Commenting on the forecasts, Commission chair Lady Susan Rice, said: “Our forecasts point to a subdued ...

Budget date signals Scottish Fiscal Commission’s first forecasts

The Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) will produce its first official, independent forecasts on December 14 to accompany publication of the Scottish Government’s Draft Budget 2018-19. Agreed by Finance Secretary Derek Mackay and the Scottish Parliament, the December Draft Budget publication date fol...

Corporate Plan Consultation

The Scottish Fiscal Commission is seeking views on its first Corporate Plan. The Plan covers the first three years of the Commission’s operation from 1 April 2017-2020. Both the Corporate Plan and Respondent Information Form are included at the bottom of this page. How to respond We are inviting ...

Scottish Fiscal Commission looks to the future

Today the Scottish Fiscal Commission publishes two reports. The first looks back at the Scottish Government’s Budget forecasts for 2016-17.  The second looks forward to the approach the Commission will take to producing its first independent forecasts later this year. The Forecast Evaluation Repo...

Lady Rice meets with MSPs at lunchtime brief

Bruce Crawford MSP, convenor of the Finance and Constitution Committee, kindly invited MSPs to hear more about the role of the Scottish Fiscal Commission at a lunchtime briefing in the parliament on June 22. Commission chair Lady Susan Rice gave a short address on how the Commission is focused on se...

New chief executive joins Scottish Fiscal Commission

John Ireland this week takes over as Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC).  John was formerly a Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University and spent time early in his career both with HM Treasury and the National Institute of Economic and Social Resear...

Good Things Come in Threes: The Scottish Fiscal Commission Comes of Age

As part of the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions hosted at the Scottish Parliament, Lady Susan Rice gave a welcome speech to our peers from around the world: Presiding officer, ladies and gentlemen. I’m really pleased to see...

Scottish Fiscal Commission launches

Scotland’s official economic and fiscal forecasts will be produced by an independent body following the launch tomorrow (1 April) of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) as a non-Ministerial department. The Commission is chaired by Lady Susan Rice CBE. Lady Rice said: "This is an important mileston...

New Commissioners

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Constitution, Derek Mackay, today announced the appointment of David Wilson and Alasdair Smith as Members of the Scottish Fiscal Commission Board. Chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission Lady Susan Rice said: “This is an important step as we move towards taking...