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Budget forecasts benefit from new data

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published its evaluation of the accuracy of its forecasts which are used to set the Scottish Budget. Devolved taxes and social security benefits make up a higher proportion of the Scottish Budget than ever before, so the accuracy of those forecasts matters. ...

Scottish Fiscal Commission highlights increasing risks for the Scottish Budget

The Scottish Government will need to manage volatility in its Budget as the devolution of tax and spending powers becomes fully operational, according to the Scottish Fiscal Commission.   The Commission published its official five-year economic, tax and social security forecasts today (30 May).  ...

Forthcoming Publications - September 2019

4 September 2019, 9.30am - Forecast Evaluation Report. In this we mainly evaluate forecasts of the 2018 -19 financial year. For income tax, we evaluate 2017-18 as that is the latest year for which outturn data are available and this feeds into the first income tax reconciliation in the Scottish budg...

OECD to lead first review of the Scottish Fiscal Commission

International experts will undertake an independent review of the Scottish Fiscal Commission this summer. This review is a legal requirement for the Commission and is in line with internationally-agreed best practice for independent fiscal institutions. The review will be led by the Organisation fo...

Improved outlook for Scotland’s economy but long-term prospects remain subdued

The economic outlook for Scotland in 2018 and 2019 has improved, according to the Scottish Fiscal Commission's official economic forecasts, published today. The Commission forecasts economic growth of 1.4 percent in 2018 and 1.2 percent in 2019, reflecting stronger recent economic performance, a mo...

New Commissioners appointed to the Scottish Fiscal Commission

The Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Economy and Fair Work, Mr MacKay, today announced the appointment of Professor David Ulph and Professor Francis Breedon as Members of the Scottish Fiscal Commission. Dame Susan Rice, chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission said: ‘David Ulph and Francis Breedon ar...

Developing our economic forecast: Demographic Change

The Scottish Fiscal Commission will publish its next economic forecasts for Scotland alongside the upcoming Scottish Budget. In its previous forecasts, the Commission described a subdued economic outlook, and in particular focused on slow growth in wages over the last several years. Come along to ...

Expenditure forecast on first part of Scotland's new Best Start Grant

The first of three benefits to be offered to parents under Scotland's new Best Start Grant will cost £5.6 million in 2019-20, says the Scottish Fiscal Commission. This is an increase of £3.1 million over the forecast expenditure on the UK benefit it replaces - the Sure Start Maternity Grant.  The C...

Subdued economic trends unchanged by GDP revisions says Commission

The Scottish Fiscal Commission today published an evaluation of its recent forecasts, together with two new papers on forecasting Scotland's VAT assignment and on the data it requires to carry out its work. The evaluation report showed the Commission's 2017-18 economic forecast was affected by the ...

Forecasting the cost of Scotland's social security benefits

As responsibility for more social security benefits is handed over to the Scottish Parliament, forecasting their impact on Scotland's budget becomes increasingly important. If you have experience of Carer's Allowance, Sure Start Maternity Grant, the Healthy Start scheme, Discretionary Housing Payme...

Dame Susan Rice talks about the Scottish Fiscal Commission's Five Year Forecasts published 31 May 2018

Dame Susan Rice, SFC chair from Fiscal Commission on Vimeo....

Slow wage growth dampens Scottish income tax forecasts

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has published its latest report ‘Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts - May 2018’, which shows that the outlook for the Scottish economy remains subdued over the next five years. GDP growth is expected to remain below 1.0 per cent a year over the forecast period, r...

Next Commission forecast to be published on 31 May 2018

21 March 2018  The Scottish Fiscal Commission will publish produce their next edition of Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts on Thursday 31 May 2018. This will include updated economic and fiscal forecasts up to 2023-24.  These forecasts are being produced to inform the Scottish Government’s ...

Scottish Fiscal Commission looks to the future

Today the Scottish Fiscal Commission publishes two reports. The first looks back at the Scottish Government’s Budget forecasts for 2016-17.  The second looks forward to the approach the Commission will take to producing its first independent forecasts later this year. The Forecast Evaluation Repo...

Lady Rice meets with MSPs at lunchtime brief

Bruce Crawford MSP, convenor of the Finance and Constitution Committee, kindly invited MSPs to hear more about the role of the Scottish Fiscal Commission at a lunchtime briefing in the parliament on June 22. Commission chair Lady Susan Rice gave a short address on how the Commission is focused on se...

New chief executive joins Scottish Fiscal Commission

John Ireland this week takes over as Chief Executive of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC).  John was formerly a Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University and spent time early in his career both with HM Treasury and the National Institute of Economic and Social Resear...

Good Things Come in Threes: The Scottish Fiscal Commission Comes of Age

As part of the 9th Annual Meeting of the OECD Network of Parliamentary Budget Officials and Independent Fiscal Institutions hosted at the Scottish Parliament, Lady Susan Rice gave a welcome speech to our peers from around the world: Presiding officer, ladies and gentlemen. I’m really pleased to see...

Scottish Fiscal Commission launches

Scotland’s official economic and fiscal forecasts will be produced by an independent body following the launch tomorrow (1 April) of the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) as a non-Ministerial department. The Commission is chaired by Lady Susan Rice CBE. Lady Rice said: "This is an important mileston...

New Commissioners

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Constitution, Derek Mackay, today announced the appointment of David Wilson and Alasdair Smith as Members of the Scottish Fiscal Commission Board. Chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission Lady Susan Rice said: “This is an important step as we move towards taking...