Scottish Fiscal Commission publishes papers on economic forecasting and income tax behaviour

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published two papers which give more detail on its approach to forecasting  income tax receipts and the economy. The first of these, ‘How we forecast behavioural responses to income tax policy‘ sets out in greater detail the approach it took in its official forecasts of December and February, to modelling taxpayers’ behavioural responses to Scottish income tax policy changes.  

The second, ‘Forecasting the long-run potential of the Scottish economy‘ explains how the Commission estimates and forecasts potential output and its components including employment and productivity. The Commission is publishing these papers in line with its commitment to be transparent about its methods of modelling and forecasting, and to encourage debate and discussion about differing approaches. The Commission will continue to publish similar papers as and when appropriate.

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