Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2017
Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (PDF 2.3MB), was published on 14 December 2017 to accompany the Scottish Government’s Draft Budget 2018-19. We set out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable. Our report also includes costings for policies announced by the Scottish Government at the Draft Budget 2018-19.
The summary of our report (PDF 0.8MB) sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts (PDF 0.2MB).
Supplementary publications
25 January 2018 - Introduction of Budget Bill
We were required to publish a second report to accompany the Budget Bill when it was introduced in the Scottish Parliament on 25 January 2018. The report refers to our forecasts published in December 2017. The report did not contain updated forecasts as there had been no changes to Scottish Government policy and no material change in the available data at the time.
6 February 2018 - Updated income tax forecasts
On 31 January the Scottish Government announced changes to the 2018-19 Draft Budget. To support Parliamentary scrutiny, we have provided updated income tax forecasts reflecting these policy changes.
The update contains details on our forecast of the policy costing, and includes assumptions about behavioural responses. Tables of the data are available to download separately.
The timing of this publication was set out in a supplement to the agreed Protocol with the Scottish Government, available here.
Supporting documents
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 0 - Executive Summary - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 122.5 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 1 - Introduction - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 34.2 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 2 - Economy Forecast - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 243.8 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 2 - Economy - Supplementary Tables.xlsx (XLSX 161.8 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 3 - Tax - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 274.4 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 3 - Tax - Supplementary Tables.xlsx (XLSX 20.2 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 4 - Social Security - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 291.4 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Chapter 5 - Borrowing - Charts & Tables.xlsx (XLSX 17.3 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Annex - Policy Costings - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 77.5 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts December 2017 - Log of Contact .pdf (PDF 78.4 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts - January 2018 - Supplementary Budget Bill Publication.pdf (PDF 70.8 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts - Supplementary Publication - Updated Income Tax Forecasts February 2018.pdf (PDF 259.7 KB)
- Scotland's Economic & Fiscal Forecasts - Supplementary Publication - Updated Income Tax Forecasts - Charts and Tables.xlsx (XLSX 35.6 KB)