What we forecast

We produce independent forecasts on devolved tax revenues and demand-led social security expenditure to help determine the Scottish Government's budget

What we currently forecast

Income tax powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament covers all non-savings non-dividend (NSND) income from Scottish taxpayers.


LBTT is paid on the purchase of property and land, it was introduced in April 2015. The two components of LBTT are residential and non-residential (commercial) property.

Residential LBTT includes the Additional Dwelling Supplement (ADS). This is payable on additional residential properties such as second homes or buy-to-let properties.

Read more on residential or non-residential LBTT

Non Domestic Rates (also called Business Rates) are paid by the owner, tenant or occupier of non-domestic properties.         

Read more…

The Scotland Act 2016 devolved Air Passenger Duty (APD) to the Scottish Parliament; this is a tax paid on passengers flying from Scotland.  From April 2018, APD will be replaced with Air Departure Tax (ADT). 

Read more…

Scottish Landfill Tax is the tax paid on the disposal of waste to landfill which was introduced from April 2015.


At the next Draft Budget we will produce 5 year forecasts of Scotland's on-shore GDP.

GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders over a specific time period. Scottish on-shore GDP excludes the extraction of oil, gas and other hydrocarbons from the Scottish sector of the UK continental shelf.


What we will forecast in the future

Aggregates Levy is the tax paid on the commercial exploitation of rock, sand and gravel.

Aggregates Levy will be devolved once current State Aid and other outstanding legal issues have been resolved.


The Scotland Act 2016 devolved a number of social security benefits to Scotland. The exact date of the transfer of powers of these benefits to the Scottish Parliament has yet to be agreed. The benefits include:

  • Attendance Allowance
  • Carer’s Allowance
  • Disability Living Allowance
  • Personal Independence Payment
  • Industrial Injuries Disablement Allowance
  • Severe Disablement Allowance
  • Cold Weather Payment
  • Funeral Payment
  • Sure Start Maternity Grant
  • Winter Fuel Payment
  • Discretionary Housing Payments

Furthermore, the Scottish Parliament will also have the additional powers around social security, including:

  • Vary the housing cost element of Universal Credit
  • Change the payment arrangements for Universal Credit
  • Top up reserved benefits
  • Create new benefits (other than pensions)

Once these benefits are devolved to the Scottish Parliament, we will become responsible for producing forecasts of devolved demand-led social security expenditure.