What we forecast

We produce independent forecasts on devolved tax revenues and demand-led social security expenditure to help determine the Scottish Government's budget

What we currently forecast

Income tax powers devolved to the Scottish Parliament covers all non-savings non-dividend (NSND) income from Scottish taxpayers.

NSND income tax forecast – May 2018

£ million  2016-17  2017-18  2018-19  2019-20  2020-21  2021-22  2022-23  2023-24 
   10,948  11,267  11,467  11,969  12,345  12,805  13,335  13,936

Read more...

LBTT is paid on the purchase of property and land, it was introduced in April 2015. The two components of LBTT are residential and non-residential (commercial) property.

Residential LBTT includes the Additional Dwelling Supplement (ADS). This is payable on additional residential properties such as second homes or buy-to-let properties.

LBTT forecast - May 2018

£ million  2016-17  2017-18   2018-19 2019-20  2020-21  2021-22   2022-23  2023-24
 Residential  214  259  312  342  373  405  438  473
 ADS  93  91  97  100  104  108  112  116
 Non-residential  177  201  206  214  220  226  231  238

Read more on residential or non-residential LBTT

Non Domestic Rates (also called Business Rates) are paid by the owner, tenant or occupier of non-domestic properties.   

Non-domestic rates forecast – May 2018  

 £ million

2016-17

Outturn 

2017-18  2018-19   2019-20 2020-21  2021-22  2022-23   2023-24
   2,731  2,774  2,788  2,859  2,931  3,110  3,307  3,339

Read more…

The Scotland Act 2016 devolved Air Passenger Duty (APD) to the Scottish Parliament; this is a tax paid on passengers flying from Scotland.

Scottish APD forecast – May 2018

 £ million 2016-17  2017-18  2018-19   2019-20 2020-21  2021-22   2022-23 2023-24 
   257  277  285  292  301  311  322  335

Read more…

Scottish Landfill Tax is the tax paid on the disposal of waste to landfill which was introduced from April 2015.

Scottish Landfill Tax forecast – May 2018

 £ million

2016-17

Outturn

2017-18  2018-19  2019-20   2020-21 2021-22 2022-23   2023-24
   148  142  114  93  95  87  87  88

Read more...

We produced updated forecasts for the Scottish Economy in May 2018.

Onshore Scottish GDP (% change from previous year) forecast – May 2018

£ million 

2016*

2017*

2018  2019 2020  2021  2022   2023
   0.2  0.8  0.7  0.8  0.9  0.9  0.9  0.9

*Outturn

Read more...

The Scotland Act 2016 devolved a number of social security benefits to Scotland. The transfer of powers to the Scottish Parliament has been completed for some benefits and is underway for others. Based on this process, we are forecasting expenditure on the following areas for the Draft Budget 2018-19: 

What we will forecast in the future

Aggregates Levy is the tax paid on the commercial exploitation of rock, sand and gravel.

Aggregates Levy will be devolved once current State Aid and other outstanding legal issues have been resolved.

Read more...

The Scotland Act 2016 devolved a number of social security benefits to Scotland. The transfer of powers for some of these benefits to the Scottish Parliament has yet to be agreed. Based on this process, in the future we will forecast:

  • Attendance Allowance
  • Disability Living Allowance
  • Personal Independence Payment
  • Industrial Injuries Disablement Allowance
  • Severe Disablement Allowance
  • Cold Weather Payment
  • Winter Fuel Payment

Furthermore, the Scottish Parliament will also have the additional powers around social security, including to:

  • Vary the housing cost element of Universal Credit
  • Change the payment arrangements for Universal Credit
  • Top up reserved benefits
  • Create new benefits (other than pensions)