The Economy

We produce economic forecasts for two reasons:

1) To fulfill our remit of providing a quarterly onshore GDP forecast and;

2) To provide information on the economic variables that feed into our fiscal forecasts, such as wages, employment and hours worked that are used in the income tax forecast.

As well as GDP, our report includes forecasts of other important economic factors such as income, employment, unemployment, population and international trade.

Latest forecasts

On 30 May 2019 we produced updated forecasts for the Scottish economy. The table below shows our headline GDP forecasts.

Economy forecasts, in growth rates unless otherwise stated – May 2019

GDP 2018 [1] 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
May 2019 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
Trend productivity              
May 2019 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Average nominal earnings            
May 2019 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2
Average real earnings              
May 2019 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2
Employment (millions)              
May 2019 2.67 2.68 2.68 2.69 2.69 2.69 2.70

Source: Scottish Fiscal Commission (2019) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts - May 2019.

[1] 2018 values are outturn available at time of publication.

Our report Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts for May 2019 contains further information on our economy forecasts.

Supporting information

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2018

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Forecasting the long-run potential of the Scottish economy March 2018

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2017) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2017

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2016) Current Approach to Forecasting

Scottish Government GDP statistics page