The Economy

We produce economic forecasts for two reasons:

1) To fulfill our remit of providing a quarterly onshore GDP forecast and;

2) To provide information on the economic variables that feed into our fiscal forecasts, such as wages, employment and hours worked that are used in the income tax forecast.

As well as GDP, our report includes forecasts of other important economic factors such as income, employment, unemployment, population and international trade.

Latest forecasts

On 12 December 2018, we produced updated forecasts for the Scottish economy. The table below shows our headline GDP forecasts.

Economy forecasts (% change from previous year) – December 2018

GDP 2017* 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
May 2018 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
December 2018 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Trend productivity              
May 2018 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
December 2018 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Average nominal earnings            
May 2018 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2
December 2018 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1
Average real earnings              
May 2018 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1
December 2018 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1
Employment (millions)              
May 2018 2.64 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.66 2.66 2.66
December 2018 2.64 2.64 2.65 2.65 2.66 2.66 2.66

Source: Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018

*Shows outturn as available at time of publication

 

Our report Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts for December 2018 contains further information on the methodology used in our forecast.

Supporting information

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2018

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2018) Forecasting the long-run potential of the Scottish economy March 2018

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2017) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2017

Scottish Fiscal Commission (2016) Current Approach to Forecasting

Scottish Government GDP statistics page