We produce economic forecasts for two reasons:
1) To fulfil our remit of providing five year forecasts of onshore GDP in Scotland; and
2) To provide information on the economic variables that feed into our fiscal forecasts, such as wages, employment and hours worked that are used in the income tax forecast.
As well as GDP, our report includes forecasts of other important economic factors such as income, employment, unemployment, population and international trade.
On 26 August 2021 we produced updated forecasts for the Scottish economy. The table below shows our headline economy forecasts.
August 2021 Economy forecasts, in growth rates unless otherwise stated
|Gross Domestic Product||-0.3||-10.3||10.5||2.4||1.0||1.2||1.6||1.7|
|Average nominal earnings||4.2||2.7||5.1||3.8||3.3||3.2||3.4||3.5|
|Average real earnings||2.6||2.7||1.9||1.0||1.1||1.3||1.4||1.5|
|Unemployment rate (%)||3.8||4.6||5.0||4.8||4.5||4.5||4.4||4.4|
2019-20 and 2020-21 outturn data available at time of publication.