Economy

We produce economic forecasts for two reasons:

1) To fulfil our remit of providing five year forecasts of onshore GDP in Scotland; and

2) To provide information on the economic variables that feed into our fiscal forecasts, such as wages, employment and hours worked that are used in the income tax forecast.

As well as GDP, our report includes forecasts of other important economic factors such as income, employment, unemployment, population and international trade.

Latest forecasts

On 30 May 2019 we produced updated forecasts for the Scottish economy. The table below shows our headline economy forecasts.

May 2019 Economy forecasts, in growth rates unless otherwise stated

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Gross Domestic Product 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Trend productivity 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3
Average nominal earnings 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3
Average real earnings 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2
Employment (millions) 2.67 2.68 2.67 2.67 2.68 2.68 2.69

2018 outturn data available at time of publication.

Find out more in our Analytical Papers series, including our Occasional Papers and Forecast Evaluation Reports.

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Or read our latest Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts report.

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