Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

May 2018

31 May 2018

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, was published on 31 May 2018 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Full Report

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Executive Summary

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Forecast infographic

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Economy forecasts (% growth unless otherwise stated)

Economy 2017 2018 2019 2023
GDP 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9
Trend Productivity 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1
Nominal Wages 1.1 1.6 1.8 3.2
Real Wages -1.0 -0.5 0.0 1.2
Employment 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1

Tax forecasts (£ million)

Tax 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2023-24
Income Tax 11,267 11,467 11,969 14,547
Non-Domestic Rates 2,731 2,774 2,788 3,339
LBTT 484 550 614 827
Scottish Landfill Tax 148 142 114 88

Social Security forecasts (£ million)

Social Security 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2023-24
Carer's Allowance (inc. Supplement) 11,267 11,467 11,969 14,547
Discretionary Housing Payments 50 60 61 69
Scottish Welfare Fund 33 33 33 33
Employability 0 11 20 0