December 2023 (date TBC) – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts. We’ll publish our next set of forecasts to accompany the Scottish Government’s Budget announcement. These forecasts are part of the Commission’s main forecast publication series and will provide new economic, tax and social security forecasts.
CONSULTATION ON SETTING BASELINES
The consultation on our approach to setting tax and social security policy baselines closes on 15 September and we are keen to hear from stakeholders their views on this subject.
An important part of our role is to estimate the effect policy changes introduced by the Scottish Government will have on tax revenues and social security spending in future years.
Each time we produce a forecast we have a pre-measures forecast reflecting all previously announced policies, and a post-measures forecast reflecting any new policy announcements. Our pre-measures forecast uses what we call our policy baseline, for example that tax thresholds will be held frozen or increase by inflation each year. How we set our policy baseline has a significant effect on our forecasts and also how government policy changes are framed.