This report sets out our approach to forecasting income tax. It explains our approach to forecasting income tax revenues and how we produce costings of Scottish Government policies including behavioural effects.
On 9 March 2021 we published this Fiscal Update, which sets out how the 2021-22 UK Budget has affected the Scottish Budget for 2021-22.
We have published this supplementary document to accompany Stage 2 of the Budget Bill debate, which takes place on 8 March 2021.
This Fiscal Update, published at the same time as our Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF), sets out how the 2020-21 Scottish Budget has changed since it was set in February 2020.
Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts January 2021, was published on 28 January 2021 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.
In this paper we look at how the distribution of income, as well as other factors, have contributed to growth in income tax revenues, both in Scotland and the UK.