This paper explains how the Commission estimates and forecasts potential output and its components such as employment and productivity.
Analytical
Analytical
This paper sets out the Commission’s approach to modelling how taxpayers’ behaviour will change in response to changes in income tax policy.
Setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.
Current Approach to Forecasting
September 2017
This report sets out the Commission’s approach to forecasting.
Forecast Evaluation Report
September 2017
Our 2017 Forecast Evaluation Report evaluates how our previous forecasts compare to actual outcomes, according to outturn data.