Commission invites you to look ‘under the bonnet’ of its forecasts

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published four papers setting out its approach to the forecasts it produces to inform the Scottish Government’s Budget.

Together the reports explain the models used to forecast devolved taxes and income tax, as well as disability and carer’s social security payments, together with the Commission’s updated approach to forecasting the Scottish economy.

The Commission has also published a paper describing how the Scottish Budget is funded and the role of its forecasts in the budgetary process.

Commission chair Dame Susan Rice explained:

“We’re wholly committed to being a transparent organisation and these reports invite people to take a look ‘under the bonnet’ of our work and enable us to share our developing thinking on a range of issues.

 “With the new Parliament getting under way at Holyrood, it’s an ideal time for us to provide deeper insights into our work.”

The Commission will publish its next full set of economic and fiscal forecasts for Scotland on 26 August 2021.



1. You can find the following reports on our website here

How we forecast the Scottish economy;
How we forecast devolved taxes;
How we forecast income tax;
How we forecast social security: disability and carer’s payments;
Funding for the Scottish Budget.

2. As part of our commitment to transparency, we are also publishing the Residential Land and Buildings Transaction Tax model with supporting documentation and data on our website today. These models are in Excel and will be of interest to other forecasters who may wish to replicate our forecasts and use the models themselves. 

3. The Scottish Fiscal Commission is the independent fiscal institution for Scotland, established by the Scottish Fiscal Commission (2016) Act. Our statutory duty is to provide the independent and official forecasts of Scottish GDP, devolved tax revenue and devolved social security spending for the Scottish Government to use in its budget and financial planning. The Commission’s forecasts will also assist the Parliament’s scrutiny of the Scottish Budget and Budget Bill.

4. These papers represent the collective view of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, comprising the Commissioners: Professor Francis Breedon, Professor Alasdair Smith, Professor David Ulph, and the Chair, Dame Susan Rice.