Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

December 2018

12 December 2018

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018, was published on 12 December 2018 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable. The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Full Report

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Forecast Summary

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Forecast Infographic

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Economy

Economy 2018 2019 2020 2023
GDP 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.2
Trend Productivity 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2
Nominal Earnings 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.1
Real Earnings -0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1

Tax

Tax 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2023-24
Income Tax 11,452 11,684 12,285 13,805
Non-Domestic Rates 2,287 2,785 2,887 3,332
LBTT 569 643 680 787
Scottish Landfill Tax 136 104 83 14

Social security

Social security 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2023-24
Carer's Allowance 191 320 345 412
Discretionary Housing Payments 61 63 65 69
Employability 19 19 28 0