Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
December 2018
12 December 2018
Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018, was published on 12 December 2018 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable. The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.
Main Forecast
Forecast Summary
Forecast Infographic
Economy
| Economy | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Trend Productivity | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Nominal Earnings | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| Real Earnings | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
Tax
| Tax | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax | 11,452 | 11,684 | 12,285 | 13,805 |
| Non-Domestic Rates | 2,287 | 2,785 | 2,887 | 3,332 |
| LBTT | 569 | 643 | 680 | 787 |
| Scottish Landfill Tax | 136 | 104 | 83 | 14 |
Social security
| Social security | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carer's Allowance | 191 | 320 | 345 | 412 |
| Discretionary Housing Payments | 61 | 63 | 65 | 69 |
| Employability | 19 | 19 | 28 | 0 |