Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

May 2019

30 May 2019

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019, was published on 30 May 2019 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Full Report

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Report Summary

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Forecast Infographic

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Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts


Economy

2018 2019 2020 2024
GDP 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.3
Nominal Earnings 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.2
Real Earnings 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2

Tax

Tax 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2024-25
Income Tax 11,486 11,703 12,332 14,613
Non-Domestic Rates 2,885 2,803 2,853 3,318
LBTT 553 616 655 794
Scottish Landfill Tax 143 109 87 15

Social Security - Devolved

Social Security - Devolved 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2024-25
Carer's Allowance (inc. Supplement) 186 323 344 444
Discretionary Housing Payments 62 64 66 73
Employability Services 19 16 24 0
Best Start Grant 4 21 16 18
Best Start Foods - 5 6 4
Funeral Support Payment - 6 7 8

Social Security - Illustrative

Social Security - Illustrative 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2024-25
Illustrative forecast 3,039 3,169 3,310 3,638