Our five year forecasts of Scotland’s devolved tax revenue and social security expenditure are published twice a year to accompany the Scottish Government’s Budget cycle.

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Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

February 2020

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts February 2020, was published on 6 February 2020 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Full Report

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Report Summary

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Forecast Infographic

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Supplementary note on Non-Residential Leases costing methodology

19 February 2020: A short supplementary note containing detail on the methodology for our the non-residential leases policy costing was published.

Note

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Economy

2019 2020 2021 2024
GDP 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Trend Productivity 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3
Nominal Earnings 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3
Real Earnings 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2

Tax

Tax 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2024-25
Income Tax 11,677 12,365 12,897 14,722
Non-Domestic Rates 2,806 2,749 3,012 3,590
LBTT 613 641 666 749
Scottish Landfill Tax 124 116 110 66

Social Security

Social Security – Devolved 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2024-25
All devolved social security assistance 458 3,435 3,578 3,959

Non Domestic Rates (Scotland) Bill – Supplementary Costings – December 2019

You can find our December 2019 supplementary costings here.

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May 2019

You can find our May 2019 forecasts here.

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December 2018

You can find our December 2018 forecasts here.

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Other publications

You can find our Forecast Evaluation Reports, Occasional Papers and Statements of Data Needs here.

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