Our five year forecasts of Scotland’s devolved tax revenue and social security expenditure are published twice a year to accompany the Scottish Government’s Budget cycle.

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Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

January 2021

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts January 2021, was published on 28 January 2021 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable. We also released a Fiscal Update, which sets out how the 2020-21 Scottish Budget has changed since February 2020.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Full Report

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Report summary

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Forecast infographic

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Fiscal Update – January 2021

This Fiscal Update sets out how the 2020-21 Scottish Budget has changed since February 2020.

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Supplementary Costing – Scottish Child Payment

This Supplementary Costing sets out our forecasts of a new payment being launched by the Scottish Government, Scottish Child Payment.

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Supplementary Costing – Increased starting threshold for residential LBTT

In this supplementary costing, we estimate the cost of Scottish Government’s policy to temporarily raise the residential LBTT starting threshold to £250,000.

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Other publications

You can find our Forecast Evaluation Reports, Occasional Papers and Statements of Data Needs here.

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