Forecasts
Our five year forecasts of Scotland’s devolved tax revenue and social security expenditure are published twice a year to accompany the Scottish Government’s Budget cycle.
Latest forecast
Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
February 2020
Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts February 2020, was published on 6 February 2020 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.
The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.
Full Report
Report Summary
Forecast Infographic
Supplementary note on Non-Residential Leases costing methodology
19 February 2020: A short supplementary note containing detail on the methodology for our the non-residential leases policy costing was published.
Note
Economy
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Trend Productivity | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Nominal Earnings | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Real Earnings | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Tax
| Tax | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax | 11,677 | 12,365 | 12,897 | 14,722 |
| Non-Domestic Rates | 2,806 | 2,749 | 3,012 | 3,590 |
| LBTT | 613 | 641 | 666 | 749 |
| Scottish Landfill Tax | 124 | 116 | 110 | 66 |
Social Security
| Social Security – Devolved | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All devolved social security assistance | 458 | 3,435 | 3,578 | 3,959 |