Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2017

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, was published on 14 December 2017 to accompany the Scottish Government’s Draft Budget 2018-19. We set out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable. Our report also includes costings for policies announced by the Scottish Government at the Draft Budget 2018-19.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Supplementary publications

Introduction of Budget Bill

25 January 2018

We were required to publish a second report to accompany the Budget Bill when it was introduced in the Scottish Parliament on 25 January 2018. The report refers to our forecasts published in December 2017. The report did not contain updated forecasts as there had been no changes to Scottish Government policy and no material change in the available data at the time.

Updated income tax forecasts

6 February 2018

On 31 January 2018 the Scottish Government announced changes to the 2018-19 Draft Budget. To support Parliamentary scrutiny, we have provided updated income tax forecasts reflecting these policy changes.

The update contains details on our forecast of the policy costing, and includes assumptions about behavioural responses.  Tables of the data are available to download separately.

The timing of this publication was set out in a supplement to the agreed Protocol with the Scottish Government, available here.

Following publication of this forecast we gave evidence to:

The Finance and Constitution Committee
– December 20, 2017