Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2022

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2022, was published on 15 December 2022 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced a Quick Visual Guide to help users quickly understand our forecasts.

These documents were revised on 28 February 2023 to correct some minor issues in social security forecasts. None of the headline forecast numbers are affected. The issues affect the spending allocation across the carer’s payments. A log of changes can be found in the Supporting Documents section (link).

Following the publication of our forecasts on 15 December, we gave evidence to two Scottish Parliament committees. Here are the recorded clips of our evidence session to:

The Finance and Public Administration Committee on 20 December 2022

The Social Justice and Social Security Committee on 22 December 2022


On Wednesday 25 January we held a free webinar when we presented on key aspects of our forecast and hosted a Q & A session. You can see a recording of the event here: