Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

28 January 2021

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts January 2021, was published on 28 January 2021 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable. We also released a Fiscal Update, which sets out how the 2020-21 Scottish Budget has changed since February 2020.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

These documents were revised on 10 October 2021 to correct some minor issues. None of the forecast numbers are affected. A log of changes can be found the Supporting Documents section (link).

Full Report

download forecast

Report summary

download forecast

Forecast infographic

download forecast



Following our forecast on 28 January we gave evidence to:

The Finance and Constitution Committee on 10 February 2021

The Social Security Committee on 11 February 2021