Updated forecasts for Scottish Child Payment spending

Today the Scottish Fiscal Commission has published updated forecasts of spending on the Scottish Child Payment to accompany regulations extending eligibility to older children and increasing the weekly payment amount to £25 per child.

Both these measures were included in the Commission’s May 2022 forecasts, but the forecasts have been revised to reflect higher inflation and confirmation of the date the changes will take effect.

The Commission’s forecast for spending this year has increased by £15 million to £219 million. The increase is because the Scottish Government has announced that changes will take effect from 14 November, where the Commission had previously assumed they would be implemented in December.

The Commission now forecast annual spending on Scottish Child Payment to be around £470 million from 2024-25 onwards. This is around £25 million higher than in the May 2022 forecasts, with higher inflation next year expected to mean a bigger uprating of the payment in April 2024.

The Commission still forecast that over 300,000 children under 16 will be receiving the payment each week by 2023.


Notes to Editors

The Supplementary Costing publication and accompanying tables are available on the Commission’s website.

These forecasts use an inflation forecast consistent with the Bank of England’s August 2022 Monetary Policy Report.

Our publications represent the collective view of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, comprising the Commissioners: Professor Francis Breedon, Dr Domenico Lombardi, Professor David Ulph, and the Chair, Professor Graeme Roy.