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Approach to Forecasting – Social Security – September 2018

This paper sets out the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s intended approach to forecasting devolved social security payments.

(PDF 786.6 KB)

Value Added Tax (VAT) Approach to Forecasting - September 2018

Value Added Tax (VAT) revenues will be assigned to Scotland following a transition period in 2019-20. This paper sets out our development to date of an approach to forecasting VAT.

(PDF 568.3 KB)

Statement of Data Needs - September 2018

This is our first annual Statement of Data Needs. In it we outline the data we require to create our forecasts, which organisations we rely on for data provision, and highlight areas for improvement.

(PDF 441.4 KB)

Forecasting the long-run potential of the Scottish economy March 2018

This paper explains how the Commission estimates and forecasts potential output and its components such as employment and productivity.

(PDF 549.1 KB)

How we forecast behavioural responses to income tax policy March 2018

This paper explains details of the Commission's approach to modelling taxpayer behaviour change in response to changes in income tax policy.

(PDF 359.3 KB)

Current Approach to Forecasting September 2017

This report sets out the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s intended approach to forecasting the economy, devolved taxes, and devolved social security payments. This allows us to inform interested users of our forecasts about our planned approach and the development work that is taking place in the Commission.

(PDF 506 KB)

Forecast Evaluation Report September 2018

This report evaluates how our previous forecasts compare to actual outcomes, according to outturn data. It focuses on forecasts of the economy, income tax, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, Non-Domestic Rates and Scottish Landfill Tax.

(PDF 851.8 KB)

Forecast Evaluation Report 2017

The Forecast Evaluation Report evaluates the Scottish Government's forecasts of receipts from Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and Scottish Landfill Tax in 2016-17 to the tax revenues raised. It also compares elements of the Non-Domestic Rates forecast to outturn figures.

(PDF 770.5 KB)

Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018

The Scottish Fiscal Commission's main forecast publication Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2018  informs the Scottish Budget for 2019-20. It contains our economy, tax and social security forecasts for the next five years, and our assessment of the Scottish Government’s borrowing projections. It’s accompanied by a number of spreadsheets containing our supporting charts and tables.

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Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2018

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, was published on 31 May 2018.  It sets out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

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Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2017

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, sets out our forecasts for the economy, tax receipts and social security expenditure over a five-year horizon. Our December 2017 forecasts inform the Scottish Draft Budget for 2018-19. Two supplementary reports have been published, a report to accompany the Budget Bill and updated income tax forecasts to reflect changes in Government policy.

(PDF 2.3 MB)

Report on Draft Budget 2017 - 2018

The Commission's report on the Scottish Government's forecasts for Draft Budget 2017-18 and accompanying documents.

(PDF 1.9 MB)

Report on Draft Budget 2016 - 2017

The Commission's report on the Scottish Government's forecasts for Draft Budget 2016-17.

(PDF 2.7 MB)

Report on Draft Budget 2015 - 2016

The Commission's report on the Scottish Government's forecasts for Draft Budget 2015-16.

(PDF 190.7 KB)

2015-16 Outturn Report

Report comparing the Scottish Government's forecasts of receipts in 2015-16 to the revenues collected.

(PDF 677.1 KB)

Additional Dwelling Supplement preliminary outturn report

Preliminary analysis comparing the forecast for revenues from the Additional Dwelling Supplement (ADS) component of Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) to the initial data on revenues received.

(PDF 467.4 KB)

Social Security – Best Start Grant (Pregnancy and Baby Grant)

Costing to accompany the Scottish Government's secondary legislation for Best Start Grant (Pregnancy and Baby Grant)....
(PDF 268.4 KB)

Land and Buildings Transaction Tax Group Relief - May 2018

Costing to accompany the Scottish Government’s secondary legislation for proposed changes to Non-Residential Land and Buildings Transaction Tax Group Relief....
(PDF 87.2 KB)