Occasional Papers

How we forecast devolved taxes

May 2021


This report sets out our approach to forecasting fully devolved taxes: Non-Domestic Rates, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and Scottish Landfill Tax. It also sets out how we produce our illustrative forecasts for Air Passenger Duty and Aggregates Levy.


This report sets out our approaches to forecasting disability and carer’s payments. We also set out the approaches we use in our policy costings for Child Disability Payment and Adult Disability Payment, the new Scottish forms of disability assistance.


This report sets out our approach to forecasting Scottish GDP and the other economic determinants which feed into our fiscal forecasts. It also describes the main features of the Commission’s new in-house macroeconomic forecasting model.


This report describes how funding for the Scottish Budget is determined. Each chapter explores a different component of funding and how our forecasts fit into the Scottish Budget.

How we forecast income tax

May 2021


This report sets out our approach to forecasting income tax. It explains our approach to forecasting income tax revenues and how we produce costings of Scottish Government policies including behavioural effects.