What We Do

In April 2017 the Scottish Fiscal Commission became responsible for producing independent forecasts for Scotland. This includes forecasts of tax revenues, expenditure on social security and on-shore Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The Scottish Fiscal Commission is a non-Ministerial Department, which is structurally and operationally independent of the Scottish Government. Commissioners are accountable to and give evidence to the Scottish Parliament as required. The Commission will produce independent forecasts of:

  • Revenue from fully devolved taxes and Non-savings Non-dividend income tax receipts.
  • Onshore Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Scotland.
  • Devolved demand-led social security expenditure.

Find out more about the areas the Commission will produce independent forecasts on.

These forecasts will be produced at least twice a year, at the same time the Scottish Government publishes its Draft Budget and introduces the Budget Bill to the Scottish Parliament. The Commission will also produce annual forecast evaluation publications and will from time to time publish working papers on related subjects.

Working with others

The Commission works closely with the OBR, Revenue Scotland, HMRC and other bodies. Further information of this engagement will soon be published in the governance section.

The Commission is one of a number of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) around the world. We engage actively with this international community and participate in the OECD network of Independent Fiscal Institutions.

History

The Commission operated as a non-statutory body from June 2014 to March 2017, independently scrutinising and assessing Scottish Government forecasts of receipts and economic determinants from taxes devolved to Scotland.

The Commission published three reports on the Scottish Government forecasts and two reports evaluating them. 

The Commission’s non-statutory remit and duties were set out in a Framework Document (PDF 0.2MB) agreed between the Commission and the Scottish Government and in consultation with the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee. The Protocol for the Draft Budget 2017-18 (PDF 0.2MB) covered the engagement between the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Scottish Government in relation to the Commission’s scrutiny of the forecasts.